"Deserves a spot on the bookshelf of every biotech CFO."

BRUCE BOOTH, Partner, Atlas Venture


"A helpful and insightful resource for anyone who finds themselves staring at a blank Excel spreadsheet."

ADAM FEUERSTEIN, Senior Columnist, TheStreet.com


"Pragmatic, credible advice ... this is the book I wish I'd had when I started out in the industry."

VIN MILANO, CEO, Idera Pharmaceuticals


"Invaluable, rigorously detailed, and well-validated."

- JOHN SULLIVAN, Director of Equity Research, Leerink Partners


If you’re a biotech executive, investor, dealmaker, entrepreneur, or adviser – or aspire to be one – then you need to know how to build and analyze forecasts and valuation models of R&D-stage drugs.

THE PHARMAGELLAN GUIDE TO BIOTECH FORECASTING AND VALUATION is a comprehensive, thoroughly referenced handbook for creating and interpreting financial models for early-stage biopharma assets and companies.

  • Vetted benchmarks for key drivers of income, expenses, and valuation.
  • Proprietary analyses by Pharmagellan’s experienced consulting team.
  • More than 150 current references from peer-reviewed research, industry white papers, and SEC filings.

Whether you’re making investment decisions, pitching to potential funders or partners, or assessing your own R&D program, this is the one-stop guide you need by your side.


from the foreword

By David Sable, MD

Portfolio Manager, Special Situations Life Sciences Fund • Lecturer, Columbia University

When is a biotechnology company truly viable, and when is it a meandering science project?

As a life sciences portfolio manager, I ask that question first when evaluating a potential new investment, and as a college instructor teaching entrepreneurship to science and engineering students, I try to prepare my students to be ready with a convincing answer.

For both students and experienced management teams, this is no small task. With revenue and profit years in the future, and a multistep development process fraught with uncertainty in between, early-stage biotech companies are a challenge to model. Their viability is difficult to handicap. Successful companies need to construct a credible narrative that connects today’s uncertainty with the pathway to future success. 

That narrative needs believable financial models.

With this volume, Frank S. David, Seth Robey, and Andrew Matthews demonstrate the power of biotech forecasting and valuation. They have produced a best-practices manual that makes poor decisions based on incorrect assumptions less likely for biotech entrepreneurs or investors. They are also less likely to do the wrong things for the wrong reasons.

The result is a rational and logical guide to biotechnology forecasting, a worthy and needed resource for a process that—done correctly—replaces guesswork and uncertainty with precision and clarity.